Be Excellent To Each Other

Players
Bobbyaro
Cras
Curiosity
Grim...
KovacsC
Malia
Mr Russell
Saturnalian
sdg
Slightly Green

Over to you Mr Russell, our new leader. Mission 2. This is a 4 man mission, who would you like to send? You have till 2pm Wednesday to decide.
You can talk about who you want to send as much as you like, but can I ask you to put your final proposal in bold, so that I know when you have locked in your choice.

I'm confused, so mission 1 was both successful AND sabotaged?

Mission was sabotaged, and not successful. Spies get one point.

Slightly Green
KovacsC
Mr Russell

One of these epople is a spy, at least one.

If it was sabotaged then one of these people is a filthy spy:

Slightly Green, KovacsC, Mr Russell (arf!)

So none of these people should be sent again.

So picking 4 people from the start of the list, we should probably send:
Bobbyaro
Cras
Curiosity
Grim...

What do we think, team?

I'm gonna vote 'no'.

We need more info.

Bloody hell, covered in shit and no beer to come home to AND a failed mission on top of that. Fucksticks.

So now we have the dodgy looking guy as a Leader for today.

Don't know what to say tbh. Do we vote down the Mr Russ plan on the off chance that he is the spy? Or do we assume that the Spy is either Kovacs or myself (I know I ain't, but don't expect you to all take that on face value ).

If Mr Russ is the Spy then he will have chosen at least one spy in the group he has gone for (doubt he would go for more than one).

So what we really need to do is find the safe group and send them on all missions then? Any suggestions on how we find the safe group?

I am thinking of voting no also, but how does that get us more information?

There's a point at which we're needing info, and a point where we're needing points. If we want info, we should probably pick someone from the original team and mix them in with new people to give an idea of whether they're trustworthy. If we want the points, we should probably pick all new people so we ensure that whoever the spy from the first night was isn't on the new team.

Also!

We're in big trouble.

There's only a 4% chance that a random pick of entrants will not select a bad guy. If we factor in the chance that Mr Russell is a bad guy himself, then obviously that becomes lower.

Given that a random choice gives us 4%, I say we need to use our five days. And we should have done so from the start. In fact, I think that without using all your days all the time it is likely to be very hard to win as the resistance.

So, let us vote no, and then see who the next person selects. Let's see if any patterns emerge.

Either Mr Russell or SG are a spy.


The only way to do this is to send one of us again and see it if fails.. or not

Oh

I guess there's no point writing a mission then.

To clarify, the info we gain from voting no is finding out who wanted to put people out there. Bad Guys run the risk of us voting Yes if they put out a team without a Bad Guy, and so will likely suggest at least one evil person in the team.

So the more suggested teams we see, the better.

Also!

We can't always leave it until turn #5, else the bad guys will know not to put any of their buddies in unless it is the last go.

So I am voting no, and reckon the next person should put me in the team, as I am a good guy, and wouldn't be this helpful to the resistance if I were a meanie.

We'll see the teams, but without any indication of which of the team leaders was a bad guy, how does that help us? Especially if we then automatically have to approve the fifth proposal?

So we are to just believe that you aren't the spy....big FoS here



Or maybe use the suggestion that Curio has come up with and look for voting patterns from various leaders? You seem to want us to jump in and hand the game to the Capitalist pigs.

Hmm, send one or two again from those three, with two new people?

I'd vote no to russell's selection.

Well, we shouldn't automatically approve the fifth. I have changed my mind on that one.

But we should be wary of auto voting yes.

If Mr Russell is bad, there will be a bad guy on the team.
If Mr Russell is good, there's a massive chance of a bad guy on the team (if we assume one bad guy in the first trio then it's a 97% chance of a bad guy in this team).

How many bad guys do we think were in the first batch?

Statistically, a random sample of three is more likely to contain one bad person than any other number (I think, and this does rely on MaliA being good).

Shall we assume one bad guy?

That means the probability of anyone in that group being bad is 33%.

It also means the probability of anyone outside that group being bad is 43%.

So, it's counter-intuitive, but the guys who went the first time are, individually, more likely to be innocent than those who didn't go.

But that IS making large assumptions over how many bad guys were in the first group.

I'd send me, Mali and one of the original crew.

Oh, and a fourth person.

Ruddy hell this is stacked against the resistance!

Uh - if we don't, we lose.

I'm not voting until I see the mission.
What if I'm chosen to go and the mission is to go on a date with Holly Durka-durka-willoughby? I'll never forgive myself.

How can it be a FOS, unless you are not a spy so it has to be Mr Russell...

Yes.

I mean, of course, we shouldn't automatically vote down proposals 1-4.

But we should vote this one down. And we should be very, very wary of voting through things too quickly. We've already missed a trick.

Also, people don't seem to be bearing in mind that if (say) Kov is the bad guy, and gets sent on a mission today with two randoms, he can still vote to complete the mission and we'll think he's okay.

That loses us nothing. We'd send the exact same crew the next day, and if a sabotage occurs then we know he's still potentially dodgy. In the meantime, we score a point.

So we should maybe send:
KovacsC
Malia
Mr Russell
Saturnalian

The next four off the list.
Or should we go with Curiosity's list?

I would vote yes for that.

Ok, I suspected mr Russell anyway and so I'm not surprised that mission failed. For now I say we don't trust mr Russell. I agree that it should be assumed that if be is a baddy he would select a baddy for his mission so one of:
Bobbyaro
Cras
Curiosity
Grim...
Is probably a spy.

I would vote no for that, I think it's a terrible list. Two people from the sabotaged mission, plus the leader who arranged the sabotaged mission?

Are you not grasping that I don't trust you, why should we all believe that your not the spy? Thats why I FoS'd you, you seem to be ignoring the possibility that you may be the spy (from our PoV), both Mr Russ and myself both made nods to the fact that people can't be sure of us, you seem to be hiding behind denial.

Having 2 people from the previous mission and 2 new people seems to make sense to me, however I KNOW a Spy is in Mr Russ's new group list as I know I am a true blue resistance member and that I supported the mission to my utmost, with the other two in the new crew list means a spy is definitely in the group. So I would vote no to the new crew set up, it is giving another point to the Capitalist pigs.

No I get it.. But as there was 3 of us. I know I am not a spy.. so that leaves two of you.

You are right at this stage none of use can be trusted...

Done.

Sorry, when I picked the second list I just copied and pasted the next four names off the list. Didn't realise that I'd picked kovacs being as he already went on the first mission.

Nobody trusts me clearly, but if you're all going to vote no for every list I do there's no point me picking lists. Can I abdicate?

You cannot abdicate.

Alright then. How about we go with my original list and you all vote no.
Bobbyaro
Cras
Curiosity
Grim...

Oh, and the mission is to piss on Curiosity's chips.

Votes to me by 2pm tomorrow please people!

Well, I was going to vote yes, but...

I'm totally voting yes.

Should I not vote yes?

Well I think we should vote yes, but I'm pretty disillusioned with it to be honest.

That depends. Are you a spy?

I think it would make sense to build on what we learnt in the ladt round rather than have a fresh sheet of paper, oh exalted leader of the resistance.

Urgh I don't know what to do. I don't trust mr Russell so I don't want him choosing the people, but at the same time he has just chosen the first four people on the list, but I think that means one of them is likely bad, but surely any person will likely put a spy in their group wether accidentally or deliberately?
I think I'm going to vote no but I think we need to discuss what would be a good list and if we should include or exclude people previously sent.

Any random list of 4 is almost certain to include a spy.

I have sent in my no to this crazy chip destroying plan.

I think it's reasonable to expect that we're always going to lose the first few - because as Curio says, picking randomly means there's a good chance there's a spy in the mix. The first few rounds have to be more about getting us information.

Good moaning.

The wither is louve lee today. Much bitter after the dick night of sabotage.

Mister Russell is achtung suspicious, boot it might bee frost day ... No, I can't keep this up.

Presumably you've got to send a few missions before you can have a punt at guessing which combinations have spy's in their mist. I'll say give this one a go and then we'll have to try some combinations of people who have already been sent.

It's a best of 5 rounds...